Ishmael Abroad

Still alive?

2011-06-08T13:44:00.001-07:00

Developing...

World turned upside down?

2007-12-19T07:10:00.000-08:00

Here is a little idea I have been working on recently. Check it out and vote to help me get $10,000 to make it a reality! Click here:
Promoting responsible consumerism in developing countries!

Idea Description

Most of the world's poor live in the "Global South", including South America, South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. While most people are aware of this fact, they often forget about the thriving and rapidly-expanding middle classes that are springing up in places like Brazil, Ghana, and India.

What I would like to do is market fair trade and sweatshop-free merchandise to those CONSUMERS so that they have a chance to make the same responsible choices as those of us living in the United States and Europe.

What will you do if you win $10,000 for this idea?

1. Work with suppliers and exporters to ensure that their workers are paid a living wage and no child labor is used in the production of their products.
2. Begin distribution (using existing contacts) and start marketing "South South" products in a few target markets.
3. Put proceeds towards education and health programs in developing countries.

Potential Challenges

Are consumers in the developing world ready to support fair trade products? My answer is yes! What is yours?

Team sports

2006-11-03T15:46:00.000-08:00

Comment from my buddy Ryan (a Pats fan) over on TGR:

From SI.com a few days ago, Talk pro football with SI.com's Andrew Perloff in Huddle Up, a forum to discuss the hottest topics around the NFL:

Sports Illustrated's player poll on the most overrated player in the NFL has touched off controversy around the country -- especially in Dallas and Chicago. Terrell Owens topped the poll of 361 players, and Brian Urlacher was second. Ray Lewis, Michael Vick, Eli Manning, Keyshawn Johnson and Peyton Manning round out the top seven.

I would add Tom Brady to the list.

If the Patriots hadn't drafted Brady, there's no way he'd be compared to Joe Montana and Johnnie Unitas. Would Brady be a Pro Bowler? Probably. He obviously has a ton of talent, but his elevated status has a lot to do with the incredible Patriots' system. It's no mistake the Patriots ran out as a team before they beat the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI. If ever there was a whole bigger than it's parts, it's this team.

Nevertheless, the world has anointed Brady the unquestioned King of the NFL.

I have always thought people overrate players who win championships in every sport. If Derek Jeter is the greatest shortstop of his era because of his rings, does that make Luis Sojo the top second baseman? Same goes for the Patriots. Is Matt Light the greatest tackle of the 2000s because New England won three Super Bowls?

Before you angrily respond, remember this is about perception. I'm not saying Brady isn't a great quarterback. I'm saying the hype has gone too far.

I took a deep breath and decided to respond to the bait:

This comment is absolutely retarded. Sorry buddy, but it's true. The fact of the matter is that one baseball player simply CANNOT win a championship without a great team around him. Pedro Martinez pitched 2 of the most dominating seasons I've ever seen from any pitcher, ever. And those Red Sox teams didn't get past the first round.

Barry Bonds, roids and all, put together a string of seasons that were as good as any of us are likely to see in our lifetimes*. His team made one World Series and missed the playoffs twice!

Football is definitely a team sport, but QB is the most important position. It would be like having a baseball team where the same guy pitched all 9 innings, every game**. So baseball comparisons should be dropped. Permanently.

In the end, a quarterback is more similar to a hockey goalie or an NBA superstar. Sure, they do need help from all of their teammates, but they are judged by championships. Patrick Roy isn't overrated. Bill Russell isn't overrated. And neither is Joe Montana.

Brady is already a surefire 1st ballot hall of famer if he drops dead tomorrow (not sure you could say that about Peyton yet). Remember also, that the Patriots already had a "Pro Bowl" quarterback when Brady jumped in the mix. Drew was decent (59-52 from 1994-2001), but probably was never going to win a Super Bowl. Brady might have to share the credit for that first Super Bowl. But how the hell do you explain the playoff record since then? The seasons (pretty much all of them) with 3000+ yards and 60% completion rate? And the record? 64 wins to go with 21 losses.

If he wins another ring with this Patriots squad and their "devestated" receiving corps (or another 2 Super Bowls at any point) then he deserves to be mentioned with the three guys above. Not just in the debate for hall of fame, but best of all time.

*Seriously, check out Barry from 2001-2004. Four of the top eight seasons for OPS in baseball history and not a single ring to show for it. And the year they did make the WS he hit .471 with an "are you kidding me?" 1994 OPS in the seven games!

**In this scenario, teams would only bring in their "closers" to take a knee and pitch a frame if they were already up 10-1 in the 9th.

This is very much a social science problem. Often times we'll only be able to say that X policy causes 25% of Y, but that it is the strongest effect that we can find. But that doesn't mean that our model isn't valid; only that it is incomplete. Oh well, I'm off to go build a better mouse-trap (model).

Back to life...

2006-10-27T11:44:00.000-07:00

Just got back from Huancavelica (via Lima). Out there, the campesinos don't know what a Jew is, but they do know Mel Gibson hates 'em. Strange world, eh?

Some good news from Libya

2006-10-12T17:49:00.000-07:00

Although I find it very hard to say anything nice about American foreign policy during the Bush years, one of the few bright spots has been Libya.

Today, the ever rotating cast at PSDBlog point us to this story of One laptop per Libyan child. This is a great victory for Nicholas Negroponte's One Laptop Per Child project. The former MIT Prof has been actively pushing this laptop as a way for developing nations to put technology in the hands of all their youth. Hopefully Mr. Gaddafi is serious about using his oil revenues to help Chad, Niger and Rwanda purchase the $100 laptop as none of those countries have the same resources as Libya.

That Libya can now be seen as almost the anti-Venezuela -- building up infrastructure, compensating victims of the Pan Am 103/Lockerbie bombing, and slowly re-opening a closed society -- should serve as a signal to our leaders (and Tom Friedman) that diplomacy can and often does work better than coercion and violence!

For more on the "Real Libya Model" and what it means for American Policy in North Korea and Iran, check out this recent
Michael Hirsh article from Newsweek International.

Market failures

2006-10-10T10:36:00.000-07:00

Over at Enviornmental and Urban Economics, Matt Kahn wonders if there are Too few prizes in academic economics?

I am by no means a fee market fundamentalist. There are many externalities that need to be corrected and quite a few products that are undervalued relative to the market. Neverthless, Matt completely loses me with this statement:

In other academic areas such as biological research, one can become a billionare if one discovers something valuable. Academic economists don't have such possibilities.

First of all, I don't remember seeing many billionaire biologists on my last trip to St Tropez. Maybe they just have their yachts anchored offshore, but somehow I doubt it.

Second, if Matt wants to criticize economists for declining marginal production, then wouldn't eliminating tenure be a better place to start?

Finally, if the problem is more specifically the lack of "big breakthroughs" then I would argue that the market is particularly well suited to allocate this outcome. The problem is lack of rigor for most economic "proofs". Black-Scholes pricing has been accepted because it works, but not many other Nobel Prize winning ideas have had the same consensus or staying power. The market, in comparison, is great at recognizing new value. So we see Billy Beane arbitraging away the value of statistical analysis in baseball, Wal-Mart leading the way to more efficient retail supply chains, and Google proving the value of the Long Tail. Even for non-business oriented fields of economics we see governments (on a local and int'l level) competing to improve environmental management, labor market regulation, ideal levels of taxation, etc. Race to the bottom or race to the top depends on your perspective, but being able to actually apply insights from academic economics is rewarded. Same as biology.

How Western Union stays in business

2006-10-10T10:00:00.000-07:00

Ever wondered how immigrants in Western nations send money to their families in poor and often rural parts of the world? Western Union is traditionally "the fastest way to send money worldwide", but also one of the most expensive, charging anywhere from 5 to 20% transaction fees.

ICICI Bank says they have some ideas in the pipeline, but no real specifics in this Hindu News Update. In any case, it's good to see this market getting more competition. Cutting international person to person transfer costs is one of the quickest ways to put money in the hands of the poor:

While not revealing the finer details about the proposed products, Misra said the products will be market-specific and possess a plethora of innovative features, which will make the modes of disbursing and accepting funds very easy.

"The new products will focus on end-beneficiaries who do not have an account with us as also on the hitherto unbanked segments," he informed.

ICICI Bank currently enjoys an over 20 per cent marketshare in the $ 24 billion Indian remittances market.

Just a comma?

2006-10-05T11:31:00.000-07:00

Matthew Yglesias responds with an appropriate degree of outrage:

It's not as funny as Foley-gate, but the ongoing war in Iraq is, obviously, more significant. The president is running around the country slandering Democrats and lying about their stand on his administration's illegal surveillance initiative, while telling people the violence in Iraq will be "just a comma" in the history books. Not, obviously, to the 2,700 and growing dead American soldiers. Not to their wives, husbands, and children. Nor to the thousands more maimed or wounded or their families. Nor to the tens of thousands of dead Iraqis and their families and friends. Or, indeed, to those inspired by the war to join radical terrorist groups, or to those who will be the victims of their future crimes.

According to Woodward's book, Bush says he'll continue the war in Iraq even if the only ones left supporting him are Laura and their dog. And, presumably, he means it. Loose talk of winning or losing the war is, at this point, irrelevant. The president has defined our war aims in Iraq purely in terms of continuing the war indefinitely. For him, keeping all of these troops over there and handing the whole shitpile off to his successor is success. Nobody else should find that very comforting.

Separated at birth?

2006-10-04T18:59:00.000-07:00

From the world of the truly freaky, comes "Separated at Birth: Mark Foley coverup edition"!

Cardinal Bernard Law.

Speaker of the House, Dennis Hastert.

What's missing from this story?

2006-09-29T19:19:00.001-07:00

Nigeria and Venezuela to Cut Oil Production

Two of the OPEC oil cartel’s 11 members, Nigeria and Venezuela, said today that they would voluntarily cut production in response to declining crude oil prices, which have fallen 20 percent from their peak two months ago.

The two most dysfunctional states in OPEC decide to "voluntarily" cut production and the reporter doesn’t even consider the possibility that they can’t meet their production quotas?

Green

2006-09-23T17:26:00.000-07:00

Just bought my first "mango verde con sal". Apparently this is a regional thing for Ica as my Arequipeña enamorada said she'd never eaten unripe mango.

The fruit itself is very user friendly to eat. The vendor peals all the skin, slices the mango into three wedges and gives you a tiny bag with too much salt. The texture was super crisp and the flavor was sour, without any bitterness. Great snack food, but a bit messy if you don't carry wet-naps!

The spaghetti bowl problem

2006-09-15T11:08:00.000-07:00

A few months ago Greg Mankiw worried about Democrat Ned Lamont's views on trade.

I responded by arguing that in int'l trade it was the big fish (WTO negotiations) that needed frying and to ignore distractions on the periphery:

I see that this is one of those issues that could make you (or any reasonable economist) lean towards the Republican position. But, I would take a careful look at the actual trade deals that have been passed since TPA was granted to GWB. They have opened up far fewer (and smaller) markets than the ones led by Clinton and the administration has put very little effort into promoting broader-based (WTO) trade agreements.

As someone concerned with international development, it is actually easy to see that the recent bilateral agreements (specifically US-Chile and US-Jordan which I am most familiar with) are far more lopsided in the number of remaining tariff restrictions than a multilateral agreement would be. Each country ends up negotiating to appease their own special interest groups and you end up with ~100 goods that are exempted from tariff reductions coming into the U.S. from a (very) small country like Chile.

So while the average Republican may be better than the average Democrat on trade, it looks like Clinton was far better than Bush on trade (and very possible that Gore could have been as well).

Well, today the International Herald Tribune Globalization Blog brings in heavy hitter Jagdish Bhagwati to back me up.

The money quote:

The architects of GATT, looking at the degeneration of the world trading system in the 1930’s into protectionism and discriminatory trade in the form of bilateral preferences, had vowed: Never again. They had made non-discrimination, and its embodiment in the Most Favored Nation clause (which guarantees to every member the lowest tariff by any member), the central principle of GATT. But they had allowed for an exception in the case of free trade areas (FTAs) and customs unions in Article 24. I am sure they thought this Article would be used rarely. But today, there are over 300 such FTAs formed or announced, and they are multiplying by the week! The culprits in this game were the Europeans. But the Americans, led by former United States Trade Representative Robert Zoellick, joined in actively. And now the Asians are busy doing their own bilaterals as well; there are elements of both “monkey see, monkey do” and tit-for-tat in what they are doing. But the whole world has practically collapsed into bilateralism which is driven by sloppy arguments and failure of leadership by the major powers such as the United States.

These Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs), among other problems, have created a chaotic system of preferences. I have called it the “spaghetti bowl” problem since eating spaghetti makes a mess for my tie and shirt!

Thanks to the PSD Blog for the link.

Define irony (or strategy)

2006-09-14T22:52:00.000-07:00

¡Mira! Our president can't pronounce the word strategy and David Brooks does not understand the meaning of the word!

And the sad truth is, there has been a gap between Bush’s visions and the means his administration has devoted to realize them. And when tactics do not adjust to fit the strategy, then the strategy eventually gets diminished to fit the tactics.

Merriam-Webster's entry on Strategy:
1 a (1) : the science and art of employing the political, economic, psychological, and military forces of a nation or group of nations to afford the maximum support to adopted policies in peace or war (2) : the science and art of military command exercised to meet the enemy in combat under advantageous conditions b : a variety of or instance of the use of strategy
2 a : a careful plan or method : a clever stratagem b : the art of devising or employing plans or stratagems toward a goal

The strategy doesn't get diminished to fit the tactics; the strategy gets replaced because it was craptastic in the first place! Brooks is basically using strategy as a synonym for vision.

"I don't think that word means what you think it means."

HT to Lance

Does politics matter for health outcomes?

2006-09-14T14:10:00.000-07:00

Earlier today Matt Kahn, an environmental economist at the Fletcher School posted Life Expectancy by State: Selection or Treatment?

In his post, Matt wonders whether "living in the District of Columbia really that bad for one's longevity (treatment)? Or do people with less health capital move to D.C (selection)?"

I can't answer that question, but the state level data for health outcomes immediately brought to mind a different question. How do political outcomes affect life expectancy?

After quickly downloading Matt's data and matching it up with the results of the 2004 presidential election (http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0922901.html) I was able to create a STATA spreadsheet with two variables: additional years of life expectancy* and percentage vote for George W. Bush.

Using the basic regression function (add_years = percent_bush + constant), there was not a strong correlation between politics and health: .0022969 and not statistically significant.

Taking a closer look, it seemed that a few outliers might really skew results. When I looked only at states in the 10-90% distribution of health outcomes (dropping Hawaii, Minnesota, Utah, Connecticut, Massachusetts on the high end and South Carolina, Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, and the District of Columbia on the low end), suddenly my hypothesis seemed a little more reasonable: -.0378876 correlation coefficient and significant at the 10% level.

Obviously I'm not the first person to point out that red states do worse than blue states on general health outcomes, but I am surprised how small the relation actually is when looking at life expectancies. And what about the tails of the distribution? HI, MN, CT, and MA are all strong blue states, but UT is the most pro-Bush state in the country. SC, AL, LA, and MI are all strong red states, but DC is the most anti-Bush voting unit in the country.

Obviously Washington DC is not at all like the other states, but Utah does seem to fit into a distinct trend. Great Plains and Western states that are strongly pro-Bush (Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, the Dakotas, Kansas) have reasonably good health outcomes, while the former Confederate states have uniformly horrible comparative health outcomes. Maybe we should call this the Jefferson Davis Health Corollary?

*Additional years of life expectancy ranged from 0 in the District of Columbia to 8 in Hawaii.

How good are Peruvian surgeons?

2006-09-10T21:33:00.000-07:00

Hmmmm. Flu-like symptoms, loss of appetite, occasional nausea, severe pain in my right abdomen. This does not look good.

Situation: developing

Who turned the lights off?

2006-09-08T08:53:00.000-07:00

From the new Pienso Blog:

Pretty crazy to think that all the traffic and nighttime activity in Lima (population 8+ million), don't add up to a brighter light than frigid Edmonton and Calgary (population ~1 million apiece).

Downloading the Classics

2006-08-30T13:24:00.000-07:00

From the folks at the Official Google Blog:

Starting today, you can go to Google Book Search and download full copies of out-of-copyright books to read at your own pace. You're free to choose from a diverse collection of public domain titles -- from well-known classics to obscure gems.

Before the rise of the public library -– a story chronicled in this 1897 edition of The Free Library – access to large collections of books was the privilege of a wealthy minority. Now, with the help of our wonderful library partners, we're able to offer you the ability to download and read PDF versions of out-of-copyright books from some of the world’s greatest collections.

Using Google Book Search, you can find The Free Library and many other extraordinary old books, such as:

* Ferriar's The Bibliomania
* A futurist from 1881's 1931: A Glance at the Twentieth Century
* Aesop's Fables
* Shakespeare's Hamlet
* Abbott's Flatland
* Hugo's Marion De Lorme
* Dunant's Eine Erinnerung an Solferino
* Bolívar's Proclamas
* Dante's Inferno

To find out-of-copyright books that you can download, simply select the "Full view" radio button when you search on books.google.com. (Please note that we do not enable downloading of any book currently under copyright. Unless we have the publisher’s permission to show more, we display only small snippets of text –- at most, two or three sentences surrounding your search term -– to help you determine if you’ve found what you’re looking for.)

Of course, this is just the beginning. As we digitize more of the world's books -- whether rare, common, popular or obscure -- people everywhere will be able to discover them on Google Book Search.

For someone stranded 150 miles from the nearest english bookstore and maybe 3000 miles from the nearest english volume library, this is great news!

Unfortunately, they still seem to be missing quite a few of my favorites (no War and Peace or Count of Monte Cristo). Maybe they couldn't find a good translation?

Edit: Danny Sullivan at SearchEngineWatch weighs in with the highs and lows of the Google Project to date. His verdict? Stick to Project Gutenberg for now.

At least it wasn’t the Shining Path

2006-08-28T15:51:00.000-07:00

Who says Ica is boring?

This morning on the Plaza de Armas, I was greeted by the site of over 50 police officers in full riot gear. Were they getting ready for a presidential visit? A massive strike? Marxist guerillas?

Nope. Just a shopkeeper who got behind on his rent payments and was refusing eviction. Apparently, the landlord (San Luis Gonzago University) got a judicial order to evict and the police were preparing for a bit of a Monday morning battle. Of course, the actual participants from inside the shop were mainly “delincuentes” paid 20 soles a piece to throw bottles and rocks at the police from the first story rooftop.

The battle got under way with tear gas and the sound of gunshots (hopefully rubber bullets) at 10 am. The police quickly took control of the street front and within 20 minutes had made way for a blowtorch to open the pad-locked store. The battle ended by 11:30 and although one ambulance did come in with sirens blazing, it didn’t seem like anyone was seriously injured.

Not every day that you get to see Hernando de Soto’s theory of weak property rights in action.

Edit: the yellow is a concrete facade. Those definitely don't look like rubber bullet holes to me.

Desperate Soundbites

2006-08-26T17:58:00.000-07:00

In which George Bush portrays himself as a Bizzaro World John Lennon. God Bless you John Stewart:

Friday Night Chatter

2006-08-25T23:49:00.000-07:00

"Ok, I'm off to yoga. Meet you at 10 for the cock fight."

Race relations

2006-08-14T08:16:00.000-07:00

Saw this tidbit in the NYTimes recently:

Members of the House have their own elevators, too, but senators are fewer in number, are more recognizable and tend toward a tall aristocratic archetype. House members blend more seamlessly with the masses and are harder to recognize, which creates its own problems. (Congressional staff members related an incident in 2001, in which they recalled the freshman Representative Melissa Hart of Pennsylvania, who is white, admonishing Representative Julia Carson, who is black, that the elevator they were riding on was members-only. Ms. Carson, of Indiana, proceeded to introduce herself to her new colleague, offense taken.)

Hmmmm… Representative Melissa Hart, Representative Julia Carson. Wonder what bit of identification they left out of this little exchange?

Normalcy

2006-08-13T10:05:00.000-07:00

After a very weird couple of months, I think it’s time to relax on the corner and enjoy a nice cold Sunday Pilsen beer. ¡Salud!

People are people

2006-07-15T10:14:00.000-07:00

Today one of the Peruvians I work with, Rosario, came to me with a problem: everyone is mad at her because she is working too hard.

A little background: there are 10 promotores working as both door-to-door and in-bank salespeople. Rosario is a very outspoken young woman, has a good rapport with the clients, and is one of the only promotores that consistently meets the goals laid out by their supervisor. She also happens to be one of the oldest promotores and the only one with a young child at home.

So what else is new, you might say. Don’t the lazy kids always resent the straight-A student? Yes that is true. What really struck me was this comment that Rosario made: “Daniel, mejor que me voy a los Estados Unidos. A lo menos allá ellos respetan a personas que trabajan duros.”

I nearly laughed out loud when she said that. But since that would have been fairly inappropriate (and a George Bush joke might have been misunderstood), I stifled a giggle and imparted what little wisdom I could lend to the conversation: “Gente son gente.”

New York, Lima, Shanghai, or Nairobi. It doesn’t matter where you are, there will always be slackers and overachievers. As someone who has at times been in the former but, more recently, in the latter group I can relate to both sides. Many slackers actually do have a strong desire to succeed. But they often face structural problems and typically put up mental blocks that prevent them from ever starting down a fruitful road. In reality, this is just a fear of failure that acts like a mild form of depression and can lead to a downward spiral. “Nothing ventured, nothing gained,” as the saying goes. But to a depressed mind, “Nothing ventured, nothing lost,” weighs much heavier in the balance.

If you get enough slackers in a group together, they’ll often recognize that it is easier to bring the overachiever down a notch (through ridicule) than to actually buckle down and improve their own prospects. Call it whatever you want. Jealousy. Self-loathing. Mean-spirited. It is a constant feature of group social interactions, perhaps best demonstrated by the American high school cafeteria scene.
----------------------------------------------------------------
So Rosario, I hope you keep working hard. I’m sure your husband appreciates it and you’re setting a great example for your daughter. In my book, you’d be a welcome addition to the United States, but please don’t expect people to act rationally when you work harder than they do. I hate those people ;)

The Chris Rock paradox

2006-07-12T17:58:00.000-07:00

The good folks at the Private Sector Development Blog have an interesting link to Michael Porter's new book on healthcare competion.
The money quote:

Healthcare is not like buying a car. If you want leather seats in a car, this costs more because leather costs more than plastic. If you want a TV set with a bigger screen and more features, that is more expensive; it takes more circuits, more material, and so on. Healthcare is very different, especially today when we already treat virtually every medical condition in some way. Most of the time, the best quality healthcare is also the lowest cost care. The reason is that the lowest costs arise when the patient stays healthy, or gets healthy faster.

Of course, this assumption does lead to what we might call the Chris Rock paradox. Mr. Rock accutely observed that the money wasn't in the cure. The money (at least for big pharma) is in the disease:

So what they will do with AlDS is the same thing they do with everything else. They will figure out a way for you to live with it.

They don't cure shit, they just patch it up. Get you to the next stop, so they can get more of your money.

They ain't gonna cure it.

Hopefully, in our lifetime, you're gonna see somebody go:
'Yo, man, you weren't at work yesterday. What's up?'

'My AlDS is acting up. You know, when the weather get like this, my AlDS just pop up.'

So is Porter actually a big supporter of "socialized" medicine? That lead sentance, combined with what he knows to be true about the profit maximizing private sector would point towards "yes". Guess I'll have to read the book to find out.

Best comment I read this week

2006-07-06T20:57:00.000-07:00

Via Greg Mankiw's blog, we turn the mike over to
Lancelot, fourth comment down:

"Sorry, immigration foes, you'll have to stop hiding behind the 'externalities' canard. The real reason people oppose immigration is 'no poverty in my backyard.' We want to blindfold ourselves to the existence of human suffering, even if it means exacerbating it. It is a deeply immoral point of view."

I bet Greg(the Utilitarian), Greg(the Libertarian) and Greg(the Moralist) could all agree on that point!

This isn't rocket science

2006-06-10T18:22:00.000-07:00

Associate Supreme Court Justice Anthony M. Kennedy speaking at New York University’s commencement:

Think of the people around the world, and particularly in Africa, who have no clean water. Women in Africa — and the job falls to women — must spend six, eight hours a day just in trying to bring clean water to their children.
Eight billion hours a year of human effort are spent just in bringing water. And when I heard that statistic, sitting like you are in an audience, I thought, "Well, he must have said eight million." Then I thought, "Maybe it's 80 million." It's eight billion hours a year of wasted effort because the water is often contaminated when it gets there. This isn't rocket science. You can fix this.

You’re right Mr. Kennedy, development is not rocket science. It’s much harder.

Every little thing is gonna be all right

2006-06-10T18:08:00.000-07:00

Peru is going to make it.

Why am I suddenly reconvinced of this fact?  The answer lies in my recent visit to Mercado Mayorista (“Oldest Market” for those that haven’t been practicing their castellano).

The Mercado Mayorista is a few square blocks that serve as a center for all fabric and clothe sellers in Lima.  What surprised me was the vibrancy of the market and the sheer mass of humanity.  In just one concrete building, there were signs that said listed the maximum capacity per floor as 1200 people.  While we probably didn’t make it halfway to that number, each of the 11 floors was swarming with people.  In short, this was the densest group of people I have ever been witness to outside of a fútbol (or football) stadium.  All just going about their business in a country that does have a strong entrepreneurial spirit.

On the bus back to Ica I sat next to a very friendly civil engineer.  After chatting a bit about the world cup and other sports, we got talking about politics and economics in Peru.  This guy was clearly educated.  He did not come from a poor family.

And you know what he said to me about Alan Garcia?  “El tiene la oportunidad para ser el mejor presidente en la historia del Perú.”  I couldn’t agree more.

Saying goodbye

2006-05-22T20:41:00.000-07:00

So this weekend was the first time in my life that I actually ever had to fire someone. Technically, we were just “letting Carlos go” because his first three month contract had expired, but I’m sure it felt like getting fired when five of the six other workers got to keep their jobs.
This was something that I really feared doing, but it proved far easier than I had anticipated. And while I was trying to be as kind as possible during the whole process (the anti-Donald Trump), what bothered me most was the way the other workers reacted. Although they all understood my logic and reasoning, there was definitely a tenor of fear in the air when we met earlier tonight. Maybe this is a necessity in drawing a line between manager and worker, but I’m going to keep my eye on our interactions over the next few days to make sure things stay professional, but friendly and upbeat.

Profesionalismo no significa que no puedes sonreír!

No News Today

2006-05-16T12:04:00.000-07:00

I very much enjoyed the medium and the message.
http://www.independent.co.uk/

Happy Mother's Day

2006-05-14T17:52:00.000-07:00

Mother’s Day abroad is a nice time to relax, cook some food that mom used to make, and enjoy the rare day off!

Current music:
Jovanotti - L'Ombelico Del Mundo

My latest conclusion

2006-05-09T12:34:00.000-07:00

I’m living in a Preston Sturges movie!

More specifically, The Great McGinty.

For those of you who haven’t seen the movie, I’ll try not to give too much away, but the basic plot is that a bum demonstrates his tenacity to a NYC political boss by voting fraudulently not just once, but 17 times! The boss (played to perfection by Akim Tamiroff) likes what he sees so much, that he decides to run McGinty for mayor.

Maybe not the greatest of Sturges’s screwball comedies, but certainly appropriate in a country with its own “boss” and “reform” candidate all-in-one: Alan Garcia! The only difference, is that real life doesn’t even bother to give us a hero with a conscience.

Celebrating May Day

2006-05-01T10:50:00.000-07:00

Standing with my immigrant brothers in the United States – and all 27 million Peruvians – I am taking May 1st as a holiday.

While you enjoy your time off or pay penance in the cube chew on this fact:
-Length of border between Iraq + Syria: 605 km.

-Length of border between USA + Mexico: 3,141 km.

Source: CIA - The World Factbook
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/

If 100,000 plus highly professional soldiers can’t seal the first border, what makes conservatives think that somewhat less-skilled and less-dedicated border control guards are going to be able to ever police the second?

Attending Harvard means never having to say you're sorry

2006-04-26T12:36:00.000-07:00

I don’t know if anyone else has been following the Harvard plagiarism case lately.  But this story strikes me as way more important than whether James Frey actually lived the events recounted in his memoir.  At least they were all his own words.

The case seems bound for court and while little-miss-perfect at Harvard wants to insist that the copying was “unintentional,” looking at the passages it seems pretty likely that she will get taken to the cleaners.

What’s truly sad is that Ms. Viswanathanin butchered most of the passages that she copied with unnecessary adjectives and added prepositional phrases.  Here are a few from the Boston Globe:
Best Friend
Bridget is my age and lives across the street. For the first twelve years of my life, these qualifications were all I needed in a best friend. But that was before Bridget's braces came off and her boyfriend, Burke, got on, and before Hope and I met in our seventh-grade honors class.
''Sloppy Firsts," page. 7

Priscilla was my age and lived two blocks away. For the first fifteen years of my life, those were the only qualifications I needed in a best friend. We had first bonded over our mutual fascination with the abacus in a playgroup for gifted kids. But that was before freshman year, when Priscilla's glasses came off, and the first in a long string of boyfriends got on.
''Opal Mehta," page 14

The Bad Boy
The other thing about Marcus is that crackheaded girls who don't know any better think he's sexy. I don't see it. He's got dusty reddish dreads that a girl could never run her hands through. His eyes are always half-shut. His lips are usually curled into a semi-smile, like he's in on a big joke that's being played on you but you don't know it yet.
''Sloppy Firsts," page 23

Just about every girl, from the A list HBz to the stoner hoochies, thought he was sexy. The weird thing was, I didn't see it. He had too-long shaggy brown hair that fell into his eyes, which were always half-shut. His mouth was always curled into a half smile, like he knew about some big joke that was about to be played on you.
''Opal Mehta," page 48

Personal Space
Marcus then leaned across me to open the passenger-side door. He was invading my personal space, as I had learned in Psych class, and I instinctively sank back into the seat. That just made him move in closer. I was practically one with the leather at this point, and unless I hopped into the backseat, there was nowhere else for me to go.
''Sloppy Firsts," page 213

Sean stood up and stepped toward me, ostensibly to show me the book. He was definitely invading my personal space, as I had learned in a Human Evolution class last summer, and I instinctively backed up till my legs hit the chair I had been sitting in. That just made him move in closer, until the grommets in the leather embossed the backs of my knees, and he finally tilted the book toward me.
''Opal Mehta," page 175

Shopping
Finally, four major department stores and 170 specialty shops later, we were done.
''Sloppy Firsts," page 237

Five department stores, and 170 specialty shops later, I was sick of listening to her hum along to Alicia Keyes, and worn out from resisting her efforts to buy me a pink tube top emblazoned with a glittery Playboy bunny.
''Opal Mehta," page 51
http://www.boston.com/ae/books/articles/2006/04/24/opal_mehta_vs_sloppy_firsts/

Maybe she should try the Roger Myers Jr. plagiarism defense?

Myers: Okay, maybe my dad did steal Itchy, but so what? Animation is built on plagiarism!  If it weren't for someone plagiarizing the Honeymooners, we wouldn't have the Flintstones. If someone hadn't ripped off Sgt. Bilko, they'd be no Top Cat. Huckleberry Hound, Chief Wiggum, Yogi Bear? Hah! Andy Griffith, Edward G. Robinson, Art Carney.  Your honor, you take away our right to steal ideas, where are they gonna come from? Her?  [points at Marge]
Marge: Uh... Hmm... How about... Ghostmutt?
-- I see your point

Ya no conozco

2006-04-15T13:38:00.000-07:00

OK, so for the last two days I’ve been in Punta Hermosa trying to learn to surf (mostly just thrashing myself against the waves, but trying nonetheless).

Anyways, within a 36 hour period I took a bus from Ica towards Lima and then back from Punta Hermosa (30 minutes south of Lima) to Ica.  For those of you that aren’t up on commercial transport in the South Coast of Peru there is one company that dominates this route: Soyuz.

Soyuz Bus has departures every 6 minutes to Lima from Ica and vice-versa.  Considering that it is a 4.5 hour trip, they must have a minimum of 40-50 buses in the fleet just to maintain that route.  Well, somehow I managed to get the exact same bus coming and going.  The same bus, the same driver, the same ayudante, and yes the same damn movies!

I Spy and The Last Samurai, plus a 20 minute Soyuz infomercial played at top volume twice in the span of less than two days.  Yes, it was as pleasant as it sounds.

Owen Wilson almost managed to make Tom Cruise likable in the second end of our twin bill.  Eddie Murphy was going through the motions, collecting his paycheck, and playing a less-funny Chris Tucker.  And even Famke Jansen was starting to look a little bit long in the tooth!  Sad days indeed.

Even curiouser than riding the same bus twice (at no better than 2.5% odds), the ayudante let me ride for 3 hours without paying anything, even going so far as to protect me against the ticket-takers that get on for 5 minutes at the side of the road and cross-check the sales numbers.  Then, when we were almost scott-free home (in Pisco) he asked for some change and gave me a ticket.  And while I liked saving 7 or 8 soles off the cost of my bus ticket, I really wished he hadn’t gotten my hopes up for riding the Soyuz KC Jones-style…

------------------------------------------------------------

In Peru, Thursday and Friday before Easter are "dias feriados". Religious and national holidays where most people don't work. Today (Saturday) is not and so I rushed back from the beach to make sure everyone was doing their job at the Caja. In the grand American tradition, of course it would make more sense to give Friday/Saturday off (or even Thursday-Saturday) and have a real long holiday weekend. Peru chose not to do that. Fine, but let work go on as usual Saturday. What I can't deal with is the post office closing more than 2 hours early on the non-feriado day b/c they feel like it. Aaaaaaaaargh!

On the road again

2006-04-13T14:06:00.000-07:00

OK, so I’ve been on the road a bit the last few weeks. Lima, Ica, Ayacucho, and one more Ica-Lima-Ica trip thrown in there. The Peruvian election ended and another one is about to begin. Clichés have a lot of truth in them, cause the more things change the more they stay the same…

Some random musings:

How much does a rope tow cost? Cause someone needs to invest in ski infrastructure at 4,000+ meters. The mountains here are just sick brah!

I’m surprised the Nuevo Sol hasn’t taken more of a nosedive now that we know Alan and Humala are the two likely presidential candidates. Has the central bank been effectively fire walled from the political process? Or was there just so little money bet on Peru to begin with that foreign speculators don’t have much money to pull out? In any case, the Dollar/Sol savings spread at the Caja stands at ~9% on a one year certificate of deposit.

The road from Pisco to Ayacucho was a lot better than I expected. 99% paved roads combined with an alert (sober) driver and a late-model Landcruiser kept me from freaking out when we encountered snow, alpaca crossings at 16,000 feet (the Quechua woman who was herding did have a nice bright blue American style nylon raincoat), and fog so dense that the only way you noticed trucks was the sound they made as they zoomed by.

Sorry for the lack of pictures! I’ve been traveling pretty light and an expensive camera is the first thing that I drop out of my day pack.

Hasta pronto,
Ish

The James Carville School

2006-03-28T08:09:00.000-08:00

Whatever political consultants Fujimori has on his staff must`ve studied at the James Carville School of Campaigning. The top lesson at that school? "Keep it simple stupid!"

Fujimori is detained in Chile, so Martha Chavez is his appointed candidate. But all the commercials on the radio just say "CHINO CHINO CHINO!" It´s damn catchy and might be the only campaign commercial I retain after April 9 ("...Fujimori presenta!"). Please, please no segunda vuelta!

A candidate I could stand behind...

2006-03-26T13:59:00.000-08:00

With the elections fast approaching here in Peru, it looks more and more like the country will continue what the Economist would call a "trend" towards the left in Latin America (my call is that Ollanta wins going away).

I personally would prefer Lourdes, but my ideal candidate would be someone (anyone!) that could reduce the constant barage of noise pollution. The worst offender in my neighborhood is the taxi that delivers supplies to Nuveos Helados. He has one of those truck-backup sounds, but at a ridiculous high-pitched tone and set at about 115 decibels. Of course, the political candidates are some of the worst offenders with their bullhorns and annoying jingles so I guess that leaves me as a man without a country...

2006-03-24T09:26:00.000-08:00

Lucent is finally being sold Apparently
for $12.6 billion dollars.

The NYTimes article mentions that when AT&T spun off Lucent in 1996 it was a $3 billion IPO. Were there a series of subsequent offerings* in the last 10 years or do people only talk about the “collapse” of Lucent because it was once valued higher than AT&T?

10 years: $3 billion to $12.6 billion. That`s a 15.5% average annual return (not accounting for any splits). Doesn`t sound like a collapse to me. Sounds like a publicly traded company that was overvalued in 2000, but performed solidly for 10 years. Maybe some of you Lucent shareholders or market afficianados can fill me in on where I went wrong with this line of thinking?

*Even accounting for a second hypothetical $3 billion offering in 1997, we still see annual returns on market cap of more than 8 percent!

2006-03-20T13:51:00.000-08:00

This story on Botswana`s AIDS testing program caught my eye:

http://www.mercatus.org/enterpriseafrica/subcategory.php/338.html

Botswana Addressing HIV/AIDS

Jasson Urbach - The current precautionary policies to fight the onslaught of the HIV/AIDS disease are outdated. Indeed, voluntary counselling and testing (VCT) as it is currently conducted was developed over 15 years ago and has lost a great deal of applicability in today’s day and age when we are able to substantially prolong the lives of infected individuals through a strict regimen of antiretrovirals. Furthermore, voluntary counselling and testing centres are almost always geographically isolated and this serves to perpetuate the stigma involved with testing. HIV/AIDS tests should be treated just like any other test for life threatening diseases.

Botswana is among the countries most severely affected by HIV/AIDS. In 2003 there were an estimated 350,000 people living with HIV. This, in a country with a total population of approximately two million, gives Botswana an adult HIV prevalence rate of 37.3 per cent. As a result of the disease, life expectancy at birth has plummeted from 65 years in 1990-1995 to 39.7 years in 2000-2005. However, the country is slowly beginning to see some success thanks in large part to a breakthrough in the way individuals are being tested.

At the beginning of 2004, Botswana began routine testing as part of checkups in public and private clinics. The test is part of the standard routine, but people who do not want to be tested can opt out. As a result of the policies, it is estimated that 35 per cent of the 1.7 million people that live in Botswana know their status. Sub-Saharan African countries grappling to win the war against the disease have a great deal to learn from the policies that Botswana has recently adopted.

A study of antenatal clinics in Francistown, (Botswana’s second city) found that approximately 90 per cent of women tested for HIV in the first three months of the introduction of routine testing compared to just over 75 per cent in the last four months of the voluntary counselling and testing approach. However, it was noted that many individuals failed to return for their results.

Apart from routine testing, another attractive alternative to the current method of voluntary counselling and testing (VCT) is home self-testing (HST). The possibility of HST is particularly relevant in those countries that lack adequate infrastructure or where individuals have to travel vast distances to the nearest clinic where HIV testing services are conducted. Self-testing can be done without fear of stigma and/or discrimination. The rapid tests that are currently available are highly effective with a 99.6 per cent accuracy rate and typically take 20 minutes to return the result.

Individuals should be given the option to test themselves in the privacy of their own homes and the tests should be widely available in pharmacies, clinics and hospitals. Being overly cautious with regards to VCT is not going to significantly increase the number of individuals who know their status. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that less than 10 per cent of HIV-infected people in sub-Saharan Africa realise that they are infected with the virus. The more people that are tested the more people will know their status and steps should be taken to increase the numbers.

No single preventative measure should necessarily preclude any other. Individuals should be allowed to choose the method they prefer. However, testing in the home allows for more confidential results, more privacy, and ultimately the chance for a greater number of individuals to learn their HIV status. Individuals will then be better equipped with the knowledge to seek treatment, practice safe sex, and plan for the future care of their dependants.

What really interested me is the difference in efficacy of the home AIDS test for Botswana vs. a market like the United States or Peru.

To wit, let`s say that there are 1 million people in the USA w/AIDS and 100 million in the "at risk" population.

A random sample of 10 million take the test.

9,960,000 receive accurate results meaning that 99,600 receive confirmed positives and 9,860,400 receive confirmed negatives.

HOWEVER -->> 40,000 receive inaccurate results. Of these, 400 receive false negatives and 39,600 receive false positives!

That means that nearly 1 out of every 3 people that thinks they are HIV-positive will in fact be a healthy individual! Obviously this is an ineffective test, right?

WRONG.

In a small country of 2 million people where 1 million (50%) are infected this test would work surprisingly well.

Assuming half the population takes the test, then there would be 996,000 accurate results (498,000 positives; 498,000 negatives) and 4,000 inaccurate results (2,000 false positives; 2,000 false negatives).

In this case false positives make up <.5% as opposed to roughly 30% in the American case above. Just one more way that dealing with health issues is completely different in the developing world...

Dispatch numero uno

2006-03-20T13:05:00.000-08:00

(Originally sent 5 Marzo, 2006)

Hi all,

First off, yes I am still alive. No, I didn´t die in some horrible third world car crash (although I have been involved in a side-on bus collision and mototaxi vs. real taxi crash). I didn´t get sucked out to sea in a riptide surfing and I wasn´t bitten by tropical snakes in the rainforest. To tell you the truth, I´ve just been too damn busy working to get our project up and running to check in with an update.

"Wait, you left the country?"

Yes. For those that I haven´t kept in great touch with, I am now working on a randomized trial of savings incentives and marketing treatments for microfinance customers in Ica, Peru.

"That sounds awfully shady, is this just cover for some South American CIA front?"

Actually no. It is kind of difficult to explain what we´re doing and what my role is, but so far it has involved a lot of shopping; hiring and training a survey team; writing, testing and implementing IS and survey systems that will hold up for the next year; building relationships with relevant partners and people at the bank who can make things run smoothly; and trying to gently push people forward in the context of Peruvian time...

"I heard you don´t have any hot water?"

Yup. The first month I was here, I managed to make due without the creature comfort of a hot shower. Considering that it´s sunny and 90 degrees almost every day, it wasn´t that bad. Since then I have rented a very nice new appartment. It includes hot showers, but wierdly doesn´t have a towel rack or toilet paper dispenser.

"Pisco es Peru, no?"

Sí! Even with the brutal work schedule, I have managed to get myself out a few nights to cause trouble. I attended the National Pisco Sour Day festival (why can´t we have holidays like that?) and (grudgingly) helped some coworkers from the bank finish off a couple bottles of pisco puro. After a month, I can confidently say that pisco from Ica is much better than the stuff you get in Chile, but that the same grapes make for a pretty shitty wine. Peru also loses bigtime on the quality of beer scale -- luckily it´s cheap!

"And the food?"

Pretty good so far. Nothing super-fancy, but ceviche for lunch with a view of the Pacific is an experience that´s hard to top. In the desert I haven´t been as eager to eat the fish, but there are great locally grown asparagus, juicy mangos, tasty pecan candies from Ica, and the ubiquitous potato dishes and roasted chicken restaurants.

"And the Santa mug?"

Apologies to all MSH people who weren´t really interested in the rest of this email. Unfortunately, the santa mug was left behind in the United States due to space constraints. Hopefully, Santa will get his chance to see Machu Picchu and the other sites after my next round-trip in June!

"Are you going to have time to actually do stuff when I come visit or will you be too busy working?"

Thank god, yes. The first 6 weeks have definitely been a grind to get things in place, but starting soon I´ll be able to set more of my own schedule. So I definitely look forward to seeing a few of you here in Peru!

"Is that it?"

Yeah, that´s my update. Y´all have my email address, but I´ve also been using Skype a lot if you want to to check in over the phone. Apologies for the length and I hope that everything is going great in your life wherever you might be!

Saludos,
Ish